The model's single most-likely knockout path, R32 to Final.
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford · 19 Jul 2026
Most-likely bracket; slots resolve to real teams as results land. How the projected bracket works
The model's most-likely knockout path, R32 to the title.
Most-likely bracket; slots resolve to real teams as results land. How the projected bracket works
The model's title odds for every team, from a Monte-Carlo run over the full bracket: champion probability for all 48teams, with each team's path from the group stage through the quarter-final, semi-final and final. The leading contenders lead; the rest of the field is one tap away.
Model elo-dc-v1.0 · 50,000 simulations · conditioned on 104 results · Updated 19 Jul 2026
Back to the projected bracket ↑
| # | Team | Grp | Qualify | Quarter | Semi | Final | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | H | 88% |
| 50% |
| 2 | Argentina | J | 99% | 50% |
| 3 | France | I | 98% | 21% |
| 4 | England | L | >99% | 19% |
| 5 | Brazil | C | 91% | 11% |
| 6 | Morocco | C | >99% | 8% |
| 7 | Belgium | G | 77% | 7% |
| 8 | Mexico | A | 99% | 6% |
| 9 | Portugal | K | 79% | 5% |
| 10 | Colombia | K | 99% | 5% |
| # | Team | Grp | Qualify | Quarter | Semi | Final | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Switzerland | B | 78% | 5% | |||
| 12 | Norway | I | 98% | 4% | |||
| 13 | Germany | E | 99% | 4% | |||
| 14 | Netherlands | F | >99% | 4% | |||
| 15 | Japan | F | 82% | 3% | |||
| 16 | United States | D | 97% | 3% | |||
| 17 | Canada | B | 83% | 3% | |||
| 18 | Ecuador | E | 29% | 2% | |||
| 19 | Senegal | I | 98% | 2% | |||
| 20 | Paraguay | D | >99% | 2% | |||
| 21 | Australia | D | 89% | 2% | |||
| 22 | Egypt | G | >99% | 2% | |||
| 23 | Croatia | L | 87% | 2% | |||
| 24 | Uruguay | H | 51% | 1% | |||
| 25 | Iran | G | 72% | 1% | |||
| 26 | Algeria | J | 65% | 1% | |||
| 27 | Ivory Coast | E | 90% | 1% | |||
| 28 | Austria | J | 63% | 1% | |||
| 29 | Sweden | F | 89% | 1% | |||
| 30 | Turkey | D | 39% | 1% | |||
| 31 | South Korea | A | 37% | 1% | |||
| 32 | DR Congo | K | 29% | <1% | |||
| 33 | South Africa | A | 23% | <1% | |||
| 34 | Cape Verde | H | 63% | <1% | |||
| 35 | Ghana | L | >99% | <1% | |||
| 36 | New Zealand | G | 22% | <1% | |||
| 37 | Panama | L | 29% | <1% | |||
| 38 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | B | 35% | <1% | |||
| 39 | Saudi Arabia | H | 37% | <1% | |||
| 40 | Jordan | J | 23% | <1% | |||
| 41 | Czech Republic | A | 14% | <1% | |||
| 42 | Tunisia | F | 18% | <1% | |||
| 43 | Qatar | B | 37% | <1% | |||
| 44 | Haiti | C | 11% | <1% | |||
| 45 | Curaçao | E | 22% | <1% | |||
| 46 | Iraq | I | 1% | <1% | |||
| 47 | Scotland | C | <1% | <1% | |||
| 48 | Uzbekistan | K | <1% | <1% |
✓ reached / ✗missed marks a stage the results have settled; the % beside it is the model's odds from the last run while that stage was still uncertain (“was NN%”). Unsettled stages show the live odds.
Bars are scaled to the leader; the % is the model's absolute title odds. Columns read left-to-right the way the tournament flows: Group qualification, Quarter-final, Semi-final, Finalist, Champion, revealing as the screen widens. What these mean
Unfancied sides (outside the pre-tournament top 12) beating their odds. How this is ranked
▲ = surprise index (0 to 100).
Pre-tournament top 12 falling short. How this is ranked
▼ = FIFA-rank percentile minus achieved-outcome percentile.