Sweden
Model elo-dc-v1.0 · 50,000 simulations · pre-tournament · Updated 10 Jun 2026
Title odds
champion → groupChampion0.4%share of simulations this team lifts the trophy
- Reach the final1.1%
- Reach the semi-finals3.0%
- Reach the quarter-finals7.9%
- Advance from the group51.1%
Each figure is the share of Monte-Carlo simulations in which the team reaches that stage — champion, finalist, semi-finalist, quarter-finalist and group qualification.
Group F
projected finish4
4th place
single most-likely finish
51%
qualify
- 1Netherlands85%
- 2Japan81%
- 3Tunisia51%
- 4Sweden51%
Win group 13%Full Group F table ↗
Fixtures
group stage · model oddsSun 14 Jun, 20:00 GMT-6 · Guadalupe
Sweden35%32%33%
SWETUN35%
Sat 20 Jun, 12:00 GMT-5 · Houston
Netherlands56%23%21%
NEDSWE56%
Thu 25 Jun, 18:00 GMT-5 · Arlington
Japan53%25%23%
JPNSWE53%
Kickoffs show your local time and the venue-local time. Open any match for the full breakdown.
These are probabilistic odds from a calibrated Monte-Carlo model — not predictions of certainty. Sweden's title odds reflect the full bracket simulated tens of thousands of times (pre-tournament); they shift as results are entered and the model re-runs. Independent project, not affiliated with FIFA.
Squad & lineups — coming in V1.1.