Japan
Model elo-dc-v1.0 · 50,000 simulations · pre-tournament · Updated 10 Jun 2026
Title odds
champion → groupChampion3.3%share of simulations this team lifts the trophy
- Reach the final6.5%
- Reach the semi-finals12.8%
- Reach the quarter-finals24.3%
- Advance from the group81.0%
Each figure is the share of Monte-Carlo simulations in which the team reaches that stage — champion, finalist, semi-finalist, quarter-finalist and group qualification.
Group F
projected finish2
2nd place
single most-likely finish
81%
qualify
- 1Netherlands85%
- 2Japan81%
- 3Tunisia51%
- 4Sweden51%
Win group 35%Full Group F table ↗
Fixtures
group stage · model oddsSun 14 Jun, 15:00 GMT-5 · Arlington
Netherlands39%26%35%
NEDJPN39%
Sat 20 Jun, 22:00 GMT-6 · Guadalupe
Tunisia22%29%49%
TUNJPN49%
Thu 25 Jun, 18:00 GMT-5 · Arlington
Japan53%25%23%
JPNSWE53%
Kickoffs show your local time and the venue-local time. Open any match for the full breakdown.
These are probabilistic odds from a calibrated Monte-Carlo model — not predictions of certainty. Japan's title odds reflect the full bracket simulated tens of thousands of times (pre-tournament); they shift as results are entered and the model re-runs. Independent project, not affiliated with FIFA.
Squad & lineups — coming in V1.1.