The model's award races and every tracked player, projected output against actuals.
Projections as of 19 Jul 2026, conditioned on 104 results
The model's top five per position, ranked by a role rating. How the rating works
The model's FROZEN pre-tournament baseline (as of 14 Jun 2026) beside its live re-projection, with actuals so far. XG expected goals, XA expected assists; the delta is now minus the frozen pre-tournament projection (a re-projection cannot move the frozen number).
| Player | AG | AA | XG | XA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AG actual goals · AA actual assists · XG expected goals · XA expected assists | ||||
| Kylian MbappéFW | 10 | 4 | 7.0 | 1.9 |
| Lionel MessiFW | 8 | 4 | 6.7 | 4.5 |
| Jude BellinghamMF | 7 | 1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| Erling HaalandFW | 7 | 0 | 5.4 | 0.5 |
| Ousmane DembéléFW | 6 | 2 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Harry KaneFW | 6 | 1 | 4.3 | 1.2 |
| Mikel OyarzabalFW | 5 | 1 | 3.1 | 0.7 |
| Ismaïla Sarr | 4 | 1 | — | — |
| Julián Quiñones | 4 | 1 | — | — |
| Vinícius JúniorFW | 4 | 1 | 3.4 | 1.3 |
How these projections are built: methodology. Independent project, not affiliated with FIFA.
Frozen baseline from the committed pre-tournament artifact; the now projection re-projects as actuals are recorded. An OUT badge marks an eliminated player, whose now is frozen at his as-played value. Actual shown as goals/assists.