PresairaPresairaWorld Cup 2026
ForecastMatchesGroupsPredictPlayers

An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

  • Forecast
  • Matches
  • Groups
  • Predict
  • Players

June 11 – July 19, 2026 · United States · Canada · Mexico

Countdown to kick-off

48 nations, 104 matches, only one nation to go back home with the cup.
Track the time to every stage of World Cup 2026.

Think you can beat the AI?

Make your picks→

Time to Kick-off

Live
--Days
:
--Hrs
:
--Min
:
--Sec

The 2026 World Cup is the first with 48 teams and 104 matches, the largest in the tournament's history.

Tournament Forecast

A calibrated, probabilistic AI forecast.

World Cup 2026 Champion

final result
Champion crown
Spain
Champions

From day one, the model’s top two were the eventual finalists: Spain at 10.9%, Argentina at 9.6%. It called the exact Final.

The model's title pick.

Backtested on 2018 & 2022 · Updated 19 Jul 2026 · Final run, all 104 results in

Title-odds over time

champion probability
100.0%50.0%0.0%now
Spain>99.9%
Argentina<0.1%
Brazil<0.1%
England<0.1%
France<0.1%
Morocco<0.1%
Kickoffnot yetFinal

Each point is a model forecast published during the tournament, conditioned on every result completed at that time; the line connects successive published forecasts (recalcs ran in batches, so some matches share a segment). The future, to the Final, is not yet forecast.

Upcoming matches

next matchdays

No upcoming matches scheduled.

How the model saw it

pre-tournament top 8
  1. 1SpainChampions10.9%
  2. 2ArgentinaRunners-up9.6%
  3. 3BrazilRound of 167.0%
  4. 4

June 11 – July 19, 2026 · United States · Canada · Mexico

Countdown to kick-off

48 nations, 104 matches, only one nation to go back home with the cup.
Track the time to every stage of World Cup 2026.

Think you can beat the AI?

Make your picks→

Time to Kick-off

Live
--Days
:
--Hrs
:
--Min
:
--Sec

The 2026 World Cup is the first with 48 teams and 104 matches, the largest in the tournament's history.

Tournament Forecast

A calibrated, probabilistic AI forecast.

France
Fourth place
6.6%
  • 5EnglandThird place5.4%
  • 6PortugalRound of 164.2%
  • 7GermanyRound of 324.1%
  • 8NetherlandsRound of 324.0%
  • The model's pre-tournament champion odds (before a ball was kicked), with how far each side actually went. Ordered by that pre-tournament number, not final placement.

    Daily brief

    Tuesday 28 July
    Rest day

    No matches today.

    Read the full daily brief →

    Golden Boot race

    actual / exp
    • 1Kylian Mbappé10 / 7.0 exp
    • 2Lionel Messi8 / 6.7 exp
    • 3Jude Bellingham7 / 2.9 exp
    • 4Erling Haaland7 / 5.4 exp
    • 5Ousmane Dembélé6 / 2.0 exp
    See all scorers →

    AI vs Humans

    11 brackets
    1. 1rank 1Ahmad Hassan141 / 172 pts
    2. 2rank 2Presaira modelSpainBenchmark138 / 172 pts
    3. 3rank 3Seif Tamer116 / 172 pts
    4. 4rank 4M7mdEhab113 / 172 pts
    5. 5rank 5Mohammed Tarik98 / 172 pts

    Round-weighted points vs the actual bracket. Full comparison →

    Make your bracket. Beat the AI.
    Methodology

    How the forecast is built: Elo, Dixon–Coles, Monte Carlo, and backtests.

    Read →

    World Cup 2026 Champion

    final result
    Champion crown
    Spain
    Champions

    From day one, the model’s top two were the eventual finalists: Spain at 10.9%, Argentina at 9.6%. It called the exact Final.

    The model's title pick.

    Backtested on 2018 & 2022 · Updated 19 Jul 2026 · Final run, all 104 results in

    How the model saw it

    pre-tournament top 8
    1. 1SpainChampions10.9%
    2. 2ArgentinaRunners-up9.6%
    3. 3BrazilRound of 167.0%
    4. 4FranceFourth place6.6%
    5. 5EnglandThird place5.4%
    6. 6PortugalRound of 164.2%
    7. 7GermanyRound of 324.1%
    8. 8NetherlandsRound of 324.0%

    The model's pre-tournament champion odds (before a ball was kicked), with how far each side actually went. Ordered by that pre-tournament number, not final placement.

    Daily brief

    Tuesday 28 July
    Rest day

    No matches today.

    Read the full daily brief →

    Golden Boot race

    actual / exp
    • 1Kylian Mbappé10 / 7.0 exp
    • 2Lionel Messi8 / 6.7 exp
    • 3Jude Bellingham7 / 2.9 exp
    • 4Erling Haaland7 / 5.4 exp
    • 5Ousmane Dembélé6 / 2.0 exp
    See all scorers →

    Title-odds over time

    champion probability
    100.0%50.0%0.0%now
    >99.9%
    <0.1%
    <0.1%
    <0.1%
    <0.1%
    <0.1%
    Kickoffnot yetFinal

    Each point is a model forecast published during the tournament, conditioned on every result completed at that time; the line connects successive published forecasts (recalcs ran in batches, so some matches share a segment). The future, to the Final, is not yet forecast.

    Upcoming matches

    next matchdays

    No upcoming matches scheduled.

    AI vs Humans

    11 brackets
    1. 1rank 1Ahmad Hassan141 / 172 pts
    2. 2rank 2Presaira modelSpainBenchmark138 / 172 pts
    3. 3rank 3Seif Tamer116 / 172 pts
    4. 4rank 4M7mdEhab113 / 172 pts
    5. 5rank 5Mohammed Tarik98 / 172 pts

    Round-weighted points vs the actual bracket. Full comparison →

    Make your bracket. Beat the AI.
    Methodology

    How the forecast is built: Elo, Dixon–Coles, Monte Carlo, and backtests.

    Read →