June 11 – July 19, 2026 · United States · Canada · Mexico
Countdown to kick-off
48 nations, 104 matches, only one nation to go back home with the cup.
Track the time to every stage of World Cup 2026.
Time to Kick-off
LiveThe 2026 World Cup is the first with 48 teams and 104 matches, the largest in the tournament's history.
Tournament Forecast
A calibrated, probabilistic AI forecast.
Model's Champion Pick
title probabilityReaches the WC 2026 final in 17.5% of 50,000 simulations
World No. 2, the model's top-rated side at 2156 Elo — unbeaten in their last 6.
Backtested on 2018 & 2022 · Updated 10 Jun 2026 · recalculates after every result
Title-odds over time
champion probabilityEach team starts at its current odds; the lines track from here as matches are played.
Upcoming matches
next matchdaysFriday 12 June
Expected goals 1.08 – 0.82
South Korea favored — ranked #25; a clear rating edge over Czech Republic (+112 Elo).
Recent form
Expected goals 1.90 – 0.87
Canada favored — ranked #30; a decisive rating edge over Bosnia and Herzegovina (+221 Elo); playing at home as hosts.
Recent form
Saturday 13 June
Expected goals 1.30 – 0.94
United States favored — ranked #16; near-level with Paraguay on rating; playing at home as hosts.
Recent form
Expected goals 0.98 – 1.86
Switzerland favored — ranked #19; a decisive rating edge over Qatar (+295 Elo).
Recent form
Expected goals 1.14 – 0.87
Brazil favored — ranked #6; a clear rating edge over Morocco (+98 Elo).
Recent form
Pick your group winners and champion, then see how you stack up against the model.
Title race
by title odds- 1Spain10.9%
- 2Argentina9.6%
- 3Brazil7.0%
- 4France6.6%
- 5England5.4%
- 6Portugal4.2%
- 7Germany4.1%
- 8Netherlands4.0%
Movement (▲▼) begins once matches are played.
See how the brackets people submitted stack up against the model.
How the forecast is built: Elo, Dixon–Coles, Monte Carlo, and backtests.
June 11 – July 19, 2026 · United States · Canada · Mexico
Countdown to kick-off
48 nations, 104 matches, only one nation to go back home with the cup.
Track the time to every stage of World Cup 2026.
Time to Kick-off
LiveThe 2026 World Cup is the first with 48 teams and 104 matches, the largest in the tournament's history.
Tournament Forecast
A calibrated, probabilistic AI forecast.
Model's Champion Pick
title probabilityReaches the WC 2026 final in 17.5% of 50,000 simulations
World No. 2, the model's top-rated side at 2156 Elo — unbeaten in their last 6.
Backtested on 2018 & 2022 · Updated 10 Jun 2026 · recalculates after every result
Title race
by title odds- 1Spain10.9%
- 2Argentina9.6%
- 3Brazil7.0%
- 4France6.6%
- 5England5.4%
- 6Portugal4.2%
- 7Germany4.1%
- 8Netherlands4.0%
Movement (▲▼) begins once matches are played.
Title-odds over time
champion probabilityEach team starts at its current odds; the lines track from here as matches are played.
Upcoming matches
next matchdaysFriday 12 June
Expected goals 1.08 – 0.82
South Korea favored — ranked #25; a clear rating edge over Czech Republic (+112 Elo).
Recent form
Expected goals 1.90 – 0.87
Canada favored — ranked #30; a decisive rating edge over Bosnia and Herzegovina (+221 Elo); playing at home as hosts.
Recent form
Saturday 13 June
Expected goals 1.30 – 0.94
United States favored — ranked #16; near-level with Paraguay on rating; playing at home as hosts.
Recent form
Expected goals 0.98 – 1.86
Switzerland favored — ranked #19; a decisive rating edge over Qatar (+295 Elo).
Recent form
Expected goals 1.14 – 0.87
Brazil favored — ranked #6; a clear rating edge over Morocco (+98 Elo).
Recent form
Pick your group winners and champion, then see how you stack up against the model.
See how the brackets people submitted stack up against the model.
How the forecast is built: Elo, Dixon–Coles, Monte Carlo, and backtests.