36 clubs · 8 matchdays · one league phase
36 clubs. One Champion.
Calibrated forecasts for the 2026/27 Champions League, updated every matchday.
League phase draw
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Real Madrid won the first five European Cups, from 1956 to 1960, and Alfredo Di Stefano scored in every one of those five finals.
UEFA Champions League 2026/27 Champion
projected
Arsenal
Champions
Arsenal currently top the title race, projected at 23.1% to win the competition.
They are on course to reach the final in 37.0% of 50,000 simulations.
Full field · 50,000 simulations · updated since the draw, then after every matchday
Matches
in 32 daysMatchday 2 13 to 14 October 2026
Tue 13 Oct
Wed 14 Oct
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Includes an unrated club see why
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Top eight
All 36 · How the model has scored before#ClubTitleto 30%Top 8
- 123.1%75%
- 2
14.5%74% - 313.9%62%
- 413.4%50%
- 57.6%58%
- 66.7%57%
- 7
6.3%45% - 8
3.5%47%
Golden Boot race
2025/26, completed- Kylian Mbappé156.5*xG
- Harry Kane147.5*xG
Anthony Gordon106.5*xG- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia104.2*xG
Julián Alvarez107.0*xG
*a lower bound: not every appearance carries a reported xG value
See all scorersLeague phase draw
madeTitle share by association36 of 36 confirmed
AssociationClubsTitle
England
46.8%
46.8%Germany
16.0%
16.0%France
15.2%
15.2%Spain
14.6%
14.6%Italy
4.2%
4.2%Portugal
2.3%
2.3%36 clubspots 9/9/9/9drawn 27 August
Calibration record
the prior, then this seasonWorld Cup 2026
Brier 0.528
vs 0.632 base rate · 104 matches
Champions League 2026/27
No matches scored yet
Matchday 1 kicks off 8 September