Golden boot race
Projected 2026/27scopeleague phase onwardpast winning totals8 to 15 (4 seasons)
#Playerproj goalsgoalsacc. xG
1
Kylian Mbappé12.58.0 to 17.000.0
Kylian Mbappé12.58.0 to 17.000.02
Harry Kane11.17.0 to 16.000.0
Harry Kane11.17.0 to 16.000.03
Julián Alvarez8.95.0 to 13.000.0
Julián Alvarez8.95.0 to 13.000.04
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia8.25.0 to 12.000.0
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia8.25.0 to 12.000.05
Erling Haaland7.44.0 to 11.000.0
Erling Haaland7.44.0 to 11.000.0Top scorer race
Projected 2026/27#PlayerClubProj (80% range)Gls
1Kylian MbappéReal Madrid12.58 to 170
2Harry KaneBayern Munich11.17 to 160
3Julián AlvarezAtletico Madrid8.95 to 130
4Khvicha KvaratskheliaPSG8.25 to 120
5Erling HaalandMan City7.44 to 110
6Victor OsimhenGalatasaray7.14 to 110
7Ousmane DembéléPSG6.84 to 100
8Vinícius JúniorReal Madrid6.53 to 100
9Alexander SørlothAtletico Madrid5.22 to 80
10Viktor GyökeresArsenal5.12 to 80
Winning total
4 seasonsSeasonGoals, axis to 15Gls
2022/2312
2023/248
2024/2513
2025/2615
lowest8highest15range8 to 15 (4 seasons)
Where the goals came from
6 winner seasonsSeasonPlayerClubLeagueKnockoutGls
2022/23Erling HaalandManchester City5712
2023/24Harry KaneBayern Munich448
2023/24Kylian MbappéParis Saint Germain358
2024/25RaphinhaBarcelona8513
2024/25Serhou GuirassyBorussia Dortmund9413
2025/26Kylian MbappéReal Madrid13215
knockout majority2 of 6tied seasons2
The races
4 completed2022/2312winning total
fixtures125players872matchdays6margin over 2nd48 goals unattributed
#PlayerClubAppsLeagueKnockoutGls
1Erling HaalandManchester City125712
2Mohamed SalahLiverpool8718
3Vinicius JúniorReal Madrid12437
4Kylian MbappéParis Saint Germain8707
5João MárioBenfica10426
6RodrygoReal Madrid12325
7Olivier GiroudAC Milan12415
8Victor OsimhenNapoli7145
9Mehdi TaremiFC Porto7505
10Robert LewandowskiBarcelona5505
2023/248winning totaltied
fixtures125players889matchdays6margin over 2nd013 goals unattributed
#PlayerClubAppsLeagueKnockoutGls
1Harry KaneBayern Munich12448
2Kylian MbappéParis Saint Germain12358
3Vinicius JúniorReal Madrid10246
4Erling HaalandManchester City9516
5Antoine GriezmannAtlético Madrid10516
6Phil FodenManchester City10325
7RodrygoReal Madrid13325
8JoseluReal Madrid12325
9Rasmus HøjlundManchester United6505
10Wenderson GalenoFC Porto7415
2024/2513winning totaltied
fixtures189players1106matchdays8margin over 2nd022 goals unattributed
#PlayerClubAppsLeagueKnockoutGls
1RaphinhaBarcelona148513
2Serhou GuirassyBorussia Dortmund149413
3Harry KaneBayern Munich136511
4Robert LewandowskiBarcelona139211
5Lautaro MartínezInter15549
6Vinícius JúniorReal Madrid12718
7Erling HaalandManchester City10628
8Ousmane DembéléParis Saint Germain15448
9Jonathan DavidLille10617
10Kylian MbappéReal Madrid14347
2025/2615winning total
fixtures189players1120matchdays8margin over 2nd121 goals unattributed
#PlayerClubAppsLeagueKnockoutGls
1Kylian MbappéReal Madrid1213215
2Harry KaneBayern Munich148614
3Anthony GordonNewcastle United126410
4Khvicha KvaratskheliaParis Saint Germain163710
5Julián AlvarezAtlético Madrid154610
6Erling HaalandManchester City10718
7Ousmane DembéléParis Saint Germain13178
8Luis DíazBayern Munich12347
9Victor OsimhenGalatasaray10617
10Alexander SørlothAtlético Madrid15246
The bar
fixed before any dataTestThresholdAchieved
Top 5 scorers inside our top 10min 3.0 per season1.5
Rank agreement with the final racemin 0.35, and above both baselines0.408
Average goals errorbelow both baselines, strictly0.481
Win-probability calibration (mean normalised rank)min 0.90.988
Winner inside our top listtop 81/2 seasons