Tournament forecast

Every club at every stage of the 2026/27 Champions League, drawn, before matchday 1.

Title odds conditional on the league-phase finish: a top-8 seed goes straight to the round of 16, a 9 to 24 finish plays a two-legged playoff first. The gap is the cliff.

ClubChampion%Straight to last 16finish 1st to 8thbars 0 to 25%Via the playofffinish 9th to 24thbars 0 to 25%Cliffgap, pp

Arsenal23.1

24.8%

18.8%

6.0

Bayern Munich14.5

15.7%

11.6%

4.1

PSG13.9

15.9%

11.3%

4.6

Man City13.4

16.3%

11.5%

4.7

Liverpool7.6

9.1%

6.0%

3.1

Real Madrid6.7

8.0%

5.3%

2.7

Barcelona6.3

8.5%

5.0%

3.5

Inter3.5

4.7%

2.6%

2.1

Aston Villa1.5

2.5%

1.1%

1.4

Sporting CP1.4

2.4%

1.3%

1.1

Man United1.3

2.4%

1.2%

1.3

Atletico Madrid1.3

2.5%

1.2%

1.3

This compares each club's model rating against an independent measure of its standing. UEFA club coefficients are that measure, and all 36 of them are still empty in the committed data. The only ranking left is the seeding pot, which sorts the clubs into four bands and then orders them inside each band alphabetically, so a club's label would depend on its name rather than its football. It fills in on its own once real coefficients are recorded.