Spain
Model elo-dc-v1.0 · 50,000 simulations · pre-tournament · Updated 10 Jun 2026
Title odds
champion → groupChampion10.9%share of simulations this team lifts the trophy
- Reach the final17.5%
- Reach the semi-finals27.5%
- Reach the quarter-finals40.6%
- Advance from the group94.2%
Each figure is the share of Monte-Carlo simulations in which the team reaches that stage — champion, finalist, semi-finalist, quarter-finalist and group qualification.
Group H
projected finish1
1st place
single most-likely finish
94%
qualify
- 1Spain94%
- 2Uruguay81%
- 3Saudi Arabia48%
- 4Cape Verde38%
Win group 60%Full Group H table ↗
Fixtures
group stage · model oddsMon 15 Jun, 12:00 GMT-4 · Atlanta
Spain71%20%9%
ESPCPV71%
Sun 21 Jun, 12:00 GMT-4 · Atlanta
Spain66%22%11%
ESPKSA66%
Fri 26 Jun, 18:00 GMT-6 · Zapopan
Uruguay22%33%45%
URUESP45%
Kickoffs show your local time and the venue-local time. Open any match for the full breakdown.
These are probabilistic odds from a calibrated Monte-Carlo model — not predictions of certainty. Spain's title odds reflect the full bracket simulated tens of thousands of times (pre-tournament); they shift as results are entered and the model re-runs. Independent project, not affiliated with FIFA.
Squad & lineups — coming in V1.1.