Uruguay

Group HFIFA #17Elo 1946

Model elo-dc-v1.0 · 50,000 simulations · pre-tournament · Updated 10 Jun 2026

Title odds

champion → group

Champion2.7%share of simulations this team lifts the trophy

Reach the final
5.7%
Reach the semi-finals
11.4%
Reach the quarter-finals
21.3%
Advance from the group
81.0%

Each figure is the share of Monte-Carlo simulations in which the team reaches that stage — champion, finalist, semi-finalist, quarter-finalist and group qualification.

Group H

projected finish

2nd place

single most-likely finish

81%

qualify

1Spain94%
2Uruguay81%
3Saudi Arabia48%
4Cape Verde38%

Win group 26%Full Group H table ↗

Fixtures

group stage · model odds

Mon 15 Jun, 22:00 UTCMon 15 Jun, 18:00 GMT-4 · Miami Gardens

Saudi Arabia

20%31%49%

UruguayxG 0.6–1.2Lean

KSA

URU49%

Sun 21 Jun, 22:00 UTCSun 21 Jun, 18:00 GMT-4 · Miami Gardens

Uruguay

54%29%17%

Cape VerdexG 1.3–0.6Lean

URU

CPV54%

Sat 27 Jun, 00:00 UTCFri 26 Jun, 18:00 GMT-6 · Zapopan

Kickoffs show your local time and the venue-local time. Open any match for the full breakdown.

These are probabilistic odds from a calibrated Monte-Carlo model — not predictions of certainty. Uruguay's title odds reflect the full bracket simulated tens of thousands of times (pre-tournament); they shift as results are entered and the model re-runs. Independent project, not affiliated with FIFA.

Squad & lineups — coming in V1.1.