Netherlands

Group FFIFA #7Elo 1996

Model elo-dc-v1.0 · 50,000 simulations · pre-tournament · Updated 10 Jun 2026

Title odds

champion → group

Champion4.0%share of simulations this team lifts the trophy

Reach the final
7.8%
Reach the semi-finals
14.9%
Reach the quarter-finals
27.2%
Advance from the group
84.5%

Each figure is the share of Monte-Carlo simulations in which the team reaches that stage — champion, finalist, semi-finalist, quarter-finalist and group qualification.

Group F

projected finish

1st place

single most-likely finish

85%

qualify

1Netherlands85%
2Japan81%
3Tunisia51%
4Sweden51%

Win group 41%Full Group F table ↗

Fixtures

group stage · model odds

Sun 14 Jun, 20:00 UTCSun 14 Jun, 15:00 GMT-5 · Arlington

Netherlands

39%26%35%

JapanxG 1.4–1.4Toss-up

NED

JPN39%

Sat 20 Jun, 17:00 UTCSat 20 Jun, 12:00 GMT-5 · Houston

Thu 25 Jun, 23:00 UTCThu 25 Jun, 18:00 GMT-5 · Kansas City

Tunisia

20%27%53%

NetherlandsxG 0.8–1.5Lean

TUN

NED53%

Kickoffs show your local time and the venue-local time. Open any match for the full breakdown.

These are probabilistic odds from a calibrated Monte-Carlo model — not predictions of certainty. Netherlands's title odds reflect the full bracket simulated tens of thousands of times (pre-tournament); they shift as results are entered and the model re-runs. Independent project, not affiliated with FIFA.

Squad & lineups — coming in V1.1.