South Africa
Model elo-dc-v1.0 · 50,000 simulations · pre-tournament · Updated 10 Jun 2026
Title odds
champion → groupChampion0.2%share of simulations this team lifts the trophy
- Reach the final0.6%
- Reach the semi-finals1.7%
- Reach the quarter-finals5.8%
- Advance from the group44.1%
Each figure is the share of Monte-Carlo simulations in which the team reaches that stage — champion, finalist, semi-finalist, quarter-finalist and group qualification.
Group A
projected finish4
4th place
single most-likely finish
44%
qualify
- 1Mexico93%
- 2South Korea72%
- 3Czech Republic56%
- 4South Africa44%
Win group 8%Full Group A table ↗
Fixtures
group stage · model oddsThu 11 Jun, 13:00 GMT-6 · Mexico City
Mexico63%23%14%
MEXRSA63%
Thu 18 Jun, 12:00 GMT-4 · Atlanta
Czech Republic41%30%29%
CZERSA41%
Wed 24 Jun, 19:00 GMT-6 · Guadalupe
South Africa23%29%47%
RSAKOR47%
Kickoffs show your local time and the venue-local time. Open any match for the full breakdown.
These are probabilistic odds from a calibrated Monte-Carlo model — not predictions of certainty. South Africa's title odds reflect the full bracket simulated tens of thousands of times (pre-tournament); they shift as results are entered and the model re-runs. Independent project, not affiliated with FIFA.
Squad & lineups — coming in V1.1.