WC2026 Prediction EngineWC2026 Prediction Engine
Group stage · Group A · Match 1

MexicovsSouth Africa

your time · Thu 11 Jun, 13:00 GMT-6 at the venue

Estadio Azteca, Mexico City, Mexico

Model prediction

win / draw / win
63.1% Mexico23.4% draw13.5% South Africa

Expected goals 1.75 – 0.67

Rating

What's driving this: Mexico hold a decisive rating edge — +281 Elo over South Africa.

Why — factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Mexico 1918.1 · South Africa 1637.5
    Mexico +281 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Mexico #15 · South Africa #60
  • Host advantage
    Mexico playing on home soil
    +0.20 goal rate
  • Altitude
    South Africa concede ~0.5 km in Mexico City
    -0.09 goal rate
  • Recent form
    Mexico 5W-1D-0L · South Africa 3W-1D-2L

Most-likely scorelines

Dixon-Coles

Scorelines populate when the run's extras are published.

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Mexico
WWWDWW
South Africa
LWLWWD

Head to head

historical meetings

No previous meetings on record.