Mexico
HostModel elo-dc-v1.0 · 50,000 simulations · pre-tournament · Updated 10 Jun 2026
Title odds
champion → groupChampion3.7%share of simulations this team lifts the trophy
- Reach the final8.1%
- Reach the semi-finals16.7%
- Reach the quarter-finals35.1%
- Advance from the group92.6%
Each figure is the share of Monte-Carlo simulations in which the team reaches that stage — champion, finalist, semi-finalist, quarter-finalist and group qualification.
Group A
projected finish1
1st place
single most-likely finish
93%
qualify
- 1Mexico93%
- 2South Korea72%
- 3Czech Republic56%
- 4South Africa44%
Win group 59%Full Group A table ↗
Fixtures
group stage · model oddsThu 11 Jun, 13:00 GMT-6 · Mexico City
Mexico63%23%14%
MEXRSA63%
Thu 18 Jun, 19:00 GMT-6 · Zapopan
Mexico52%27%20%
MEXKOR52%
Wed 24 Jun, 19:00 GMT-6 · Mexico City
Czech Republic13%24%63%
CZEMEX63%
Kickoffs show your local time and the venue-local time. Open any match for the full breakdown.
These are probabilistic odds from a calibrated Monte-Carlo model — not predictions of certainty. Mexico's title odds reflect the full bracket simulated tens of thousands of times (pre-tournament); they shift as results are entered and the model re-runs. Independent project, not affiliated with FIFA.
Squad & lineups — coming in V1.1.