WC2026 Prediction EngineWC2026 Prediction Engine
Group stage · Group A · Match 28

MexicovsSouth Korea

your time · Thu 18 Jun, 19:00 GMT-6 at the venue

Estadio Akron, Zapopan, Mexico

Model prediction

win / draw / win
52.4% Mexico27.2% draw20.5% South Korea

Expected goals 1.48 – 0.82

Host

What's driving this: Mexico play at home as World Cup hosts.

Why — factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Mexico 1918.1 · South Korea 1871.9
    Mexico +46 · slight
  • FIFA ranking
    Mexico #15 · South Korea #25
  • Host advantage
    Mexico playing on home soil
    +0.20 goal rate
  • Altitude
    South Korea concede ~1.6 km in Zapopan
    -0.26 goal rate
  • Recent form
    Mexico 5W-1D-0L · South Korea 3W-3D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

Dixon-Coles

Scorelines populate when the run's extras are published.

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Mexico
WWWDWW
South Korea
WWDDDW

Head to head

historical meetings

No previous meetings on record.