Model elo-dc-v1.0 · 50,000 simulations · conditioned on 104 result(s) · Updated 19 Jul 2026
Each figure is a stage-reach share. What these numbers mean
Probabilistic odds, not predictions of certainty (conditioned on 104 result(s)). How the forecast is built. Independent project, not affiliated with FIFA.
Projected knockout path & head-to-head history: coming with the knockout draw and the national-team results corpus.
Kickoffs show your local time and the venue-local time. Open any match for the full breakdown.
Projected headline output. Open a player for their full expected-vs-actual profile.