Senegal

Group IFIFA #14Elo 1902

Model elo-dc-v1.0 · 50,000 simulations · pre-tournament · Updated 10 Jun 2026

Title odds

champion → group

Champion1.7%share of simulations this team lifts the trophy

Reach the final
3.7%
Reach the semi-finals
8.3%
Reach the quarter-finals
17.4%
Advance from the group
69.9%

Each figure is the share of Monte-Carlo simulations in which the team reaches that stage — champion, finalist, semi-finalist, quarter-finalist and group qualification.

Group I

projected finish

2nd place

single most-likely finish

70%

qualify

1France88%
2Senegal70%
3Iraq45%
4Norway65%

Win group 23%Full Group I table ↗

Fixtures

group stage · model odds

Tue 16 Jun, 19:00 UTCTue 16 Jun, 15:00 GMT-4 · East Rutherford

France

47%28%25%

SenegalxG 1.4–0.9Lean

FRA

SEN47%

Tue 23 Jun, 00:00 UTCMon 22 Jun, 20:00 GMT-4 · East Rutherford

Norway

33%28%38%

SenegalxG 1.2–1.3Lean

NOR

SEN38%

Fri 26 Jun, 19:00 UTCFri 26 Jun, 15:00 GMT-4 · Toronto

Kickoffs show your local time and the venue-local time. Open any match for the full breakdown.

These are probabilistic odds from a calibrated Monte-Carlo model — not predictions of certainty. Senegal's title odds reflect the full bracket simulated tens of thousands of times (pre-tournament); they shift as results are entered and the model re-runs. Independent project, not affiliated with FIFA.

Squad & lineups — coming in V1.1.