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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Round of 32 · Match 79

MexicovsEcuador

2 – 0Full time

Wed 1 Jul, 01:00 UTC your time · Tue 30 Jun, 19:00 GMT-6 at the venue

Estadio Azteca, Mexico City, Mexico

Final result

full time
Mexico2 – 0Ecuador

Mexico advance

This match is finished, so the model no longer carries odds for it. The result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Mexico
  • Julián Quiñonesgoal
  • Raúl Jiménezgoal
Ecuador

none

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-0
    14.1%
  • 1-1
    13.7%
  • 0-0
    12.6%
  • 0-1
    10.7%
  • 2-0
    8.7%
  • 2-1
    7.9%

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 31%Possession69%
  • 5Shots5
  • 1On target0
  • 2Corners3
  • 5Fouls9
  • 0Offsides1

Head to head

historical meetings
14 Mexico8 draw4 Ecuador

26 meetings · goals 43–27

  • 2025-10-14friendly1–1draw
  • 2024-06-30continental finals0–0draw
  • 2022-06-05friendly0–0draw
  • 2021-10-27friendly2–3Ecuador
  • 2019-06-09friendly3–2Mexico
  • 0Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards1
  • Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.