Ecuador
Model elo-dc-v1.0 · 50,000 simulations · pre-tournament · Updated 10 Jun 2026
Title odds
champion → groupChampion1.9%share of simulations this team lifts the trophy
- Reach the final4.3%
- Reach the semi-finals9.1%
- Reach the quarter-finals18.8%
- Advance from the group77.5%
Each figure is the share of Monte-Carlo simulations in which the team reaches that stage — champion, finalist, semi-finalist, quarter-finalist and group qualification.
Group E
projected finish2
2nd place
single most-likely finish
78%
qualify
- 1Germany89%
- 2Ecuador78%
- 3Ivory Coast68%
- 4Curaçao33%
Win group 27%Full Group E table ↗
Fixtures
group stage · model oddsSun 14 Jun, 19:00 GMT-4 · Philadelphia
Ivory Coast29%33%39%
CIVECU39%
Sat 20 Jun, 19:00 GMT-5 · Kansas City
Ecuador55%28%17%
ECUCUW55%
Thu 25 Jun, 16:00 GMT-4 · East Rutherford
Ecuador29%28%43%
ECUGER43%
Kickoffs show your local time and the venue-local time. Open any match for the full breakdown.
These are probabilistic odds from a calibrated Monte-Carlo model — not predictions of certainty. Ecuador's title odds reflect the full bracket simulated tens of thousands of times (pre-tournament); they shift as results are entered and the model re-runs. Independent project, not affiliated with FIFA.
Squad & lineups — coming in V1.1.