England

Group LFIFA #4Elo 2033

Model elo-dc-v1.0 · 50,000 simulations · pre-tournament · Updated 10 Jun 2026

Title odds

champion → group

Champion5.4%share of simulations this team lifts the trophy

Reach the final
9.7%
Reach the semi-finals
17.0%
Reach the quarter-finals
29.3%
Advance from the group
89.8%

Each figure is the share of Monte-Carlo simulations in which the team reaches that stage — champion, finalist, semi-finalist, quarter-finalist and group qualification.

Group L

projected finish

1st place

single most-likely finish

90%

qualify

1England90%
2Croatia79%
3Panama60%
4Ghana39%

Win group 49%Full Group L table ↗

Fixtures

group stage · model odds

Wed 17 Jun, 20:00 UTCWed 17 Jun, 15:00 GMT-5 · Arlington

England

44%29%27%

CroatiaxG 1.3–1.0Lean

ENG

CRO44%

Tue 23 Jun, 20:00 UTCTue 23 Jun, 16:00 GMT-4 · Foxborough

England

64%23%13%

GhanaxG 1.8–0.7Strong pick

ENG

GHA64%

Sat 27 Jun, 21:00 UTCSat 27 Jun, 17:00 GMT-4 · East Rutherford

Panama

19%25%56%

EnglandxG 0.9–1.7Lean

PAN

ENG56%

Kickoffs show your local time and the venue-local time. Open any match for the full breakdown.

These are probabilistic odds from a calibrated Monte-Carlo model — not predictions of certainty. England's title odds reflect the full bracket simulated tens of thousands of times (pre-tournament); they shift as results are entered and the model re-runs. Independent project, not affiliated with FIFA.

Squad & lineups — coming in V1.1.