Croatia

Group LFIFA #11Elo 1953

Model elo-dc-v1.0 · 50,000 simulations · pre-tournament · Updated 10 Jun 2026

Title odds

champion → group

Champion2.2%share of simulations this team lifts the trophy

Reach the final
4.7%
Reach the semi-finals
9.7%
Reach the quarter-finals
19.1%
Advance from the group
79.3%

Each figure is the share of Monte-Carlo simulations in which the team reaches that stage — champion, finalist, semi-finalist, quarter-finalist and group qualification.

Group L

projected finish

2nd place

single most-likely finish

79%

qualify

1England90%
2Croatia79%
3Panama60%
4Ghana39%

Win group 30%Full Group L table ↗

Fixtures

group stage · model odds

Wed 17 Jun, 20:00 UTCWed 17 Jun, 15:00 GMT-5 · Arlington

England

44%29%27%

CroatiaxG 1.3–1.0Lean

ENG

CRO44%

Tue 23 Jun, 23:00 UTCTue 23 Jun, 19:00 GMT-4 · Toronto

Panama

26%27%47%

CroatiaxG 1.1–1.5Lean

PAN

CRO47%

Sat 27 Jun, 21:00 UTCSat 27 Jun, 17:00 GMT-4 · Philadelphia

Kickoffs show your local time and the venue-local time. Open any match for the full breakdown.

These are probabilistic odds from a calibrated Monte-Carlo model — not predictions of certainty. Croatia's title odds reflect the full bracket simulated tens of thousands of times (pre-tournament); they shift as results are entered and the model re-runs. Independent project, not affiliated with FIFA.

Squad & lineups — coming in V1.1.