Portugal
Model elo-dc-v1.0 · 50,000 simulations · pre-tournament · Updated 10 Jun 2026
Title odds
champion → groupChampion4.2%share of simulations this team lifts the trophy
- Reach the final8.2%
- Reach the semi-finals15.4%
- Reach the quarter-finals27.6%
- Advance from the group84.8%
Each figure is the share of Monte-Carlo simulations in which the team reaches that stage — champion, finalist, semi-finalist, quarter-finalist and group qualification.
Group K
projected finish1
1st place
single most-likely finish
85%
qualify
- 1Portugal85%
- 2Colombia86%
- 3Uzbekistan51%
- 4DR Congo43%
Win group 42%Full Group K table ↗
Fixtures
group stage · model oddsWed 17 Jun, 12:00 GMT-5 · Houston
Portugal56%26%18%
PORCOD56%
Tue 23 Jun, 12:00 GMT-5 · Houston
Portugal52%27%21%
PORUZB52%
Sat 27 Jun, 19:30 GMT-4 · Miami Gardens
Colombia34%28%38%
COLPOR38%
Kickoffs show your local time and the venue-local time. Open any match for the full breakdown.
These are probabilistic odds from a calibrated Monte-Carlo model — not predictions of certainty. Portugal's title odds reflect the full bracket simulated tens of thousands of times (pre-tournament); they shift as results are entered and the model re-runs. Independent project, not affiliated with FIFA.
Squad & lineups — coming in V1.1.