Iran
Model elo-dc-v1.0 · 50,000 simulations · pre-tournament · Updated 10 Jun 2026
Title odds
champion → groupChampion1.8%share of simulations this team lifts the trophy
- Reach the final4.0%
- Reach the semi-finals8.5%
- Reach the quarter-finals18.9%
- Advance from the group73.3%
Each figure is the share of Monte-Carlo simulations in which the team reaches that stage — champion, finalist, semi-finalist, quarter-finalist and group qualification.
Group G
projected finish2
2nd place
single most-likely finish
73%
qualify
- 1Belgium83%
- 2Iran73%
- 3Egypt61%
- 4New Zealand53%
Win group 27%Full Group G table ↗
Fixtures
group stage · model oddsMon 15 Jun, 18:00 GMT-7 · Inglewood
Iran47%26%27%
IRNNZL47%
Sun 21 Jun, 12:00 GMT-7 · Inglewood
Belgium42%27%31%
BELIRN42%
Fri 26 Jun, 20:00 GMT-7 · Seattle
Egypt29%31%40%
EGYIRN40%
Kickoffs show your local time and the venue-local time. Open any match for the full breakdown.
These are probabilistic odds from a calibrated Monte-Carlo model — not predictions of certainty. Iran's title odds reflect the full bracket simulated tens of thousands of times (pre-tournament); they shift as results are entered and the model re-runs. Independent project, not affiliated with FIFA.
Squad & lineups — coming in V1.1.