United States

Host

Group DFIFA #16Elo 1832

Model elo-dc-v1.0 · 50,000 simulations · pre-tournament · Updated 10 Jun 2026

Title odds

champion → group

Champion2.7%share of simulations this team lifts the trophy

Reach the final
5.6%
Reach the semi-finals
11.1%
Reach the quarter-finals
22.5%
Advance from the group
77.7%

Each figure is the share of Monte-Carlo simulations in which the team reaches that stage — champion, finalist, semi-finalist, quarter-finalist and group qualification.

Group D

projected finish

1st place

single most-likely finish

78%

qualify

1United States78%
2Australia70%
3Paraguay59%
4Turkey65%

Win group 35%Full Group D table ↗

Fixtures

group stage · model odds

Sat 13 Jun, 01:00 UTCFri 12 Jun, 18:00 GMT-7 · Inglewood

United States

44%29%27%

ParaguayxG 1.3–0.9Lean

USA

PAR44%

Fri 19 Jun, 19:00 UTCFri 19 Jun, 12:00 GMT-7 · Seattle

United States

41%27%32%

AustraliaxG 1.4–1.2Lean

USA

AUS41%

Fri 26 Jun, 02:00 UTCThu 25 Jun, 19:00 GMT-7 · Inglewood

Turkey

30%25%45%

United StatesxG 1.3–1.6Lean

TUR

USA45%

Kickoffs show your local time and the venue-local time. Open any match for the full breakdown.

These are probabilistic odds from a calibrated Monte-Carlo model — not predictions of certainty. United States's title odds reflect the full bracket simulated tens of thousands of times (pre-tournament); they shift as results are entered and the model re-runs. Independent project, not affiliated with FIFA.

Squad & lineups — coming in V1.1.