WC2026 Prediction EngineWC2026 Prediction Engine
Group stage · Group D · Match 4

United StatesvsParaguay

your time · Fri 12 Jun, 18:00 GMT-7 at the venue

SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, United States

Model prediction

win / draw / win
44.4% United States29.1% draw26.6% Paraguay

Expected goals 1.30 – 0.94

Host

What's driving this: United States play at home as World Cup hosts.

Why — factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    United States 1825.2 · Paraguay 1842.8
    Paraguay +18 · negligible
  • FIFA ranking
    United States #16 · Paraguay #40
  • Host advantage
    United States playing on home soil
    +0.20 goal rate
  • Recent form
    United States 4W-1D-1L · Paraguay 3W-2D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

Dixon-Coles

Scorelines populate when the run's extras are published.

Recent form

last 6 competitive
United States
LWDWWW
Paraguay
WDLWDW

Head to head

historical meetings

No previous meetings on record.