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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

  • Forecast
  • Matches
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Group stage · Group D · Match 4

United StatesvsParaguay

4 – 1Full time

Sat 13 Jun, 01:00 UTC your time · Fri 12 Jun, 18:00 GMT-7 at the venue

SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, United States

Final result

full time
United States4 – 1Paraguay

This match is finished, so the model no longer carries odds for it. The result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
United States
  • Folarin Balogun2 goals
  • Giovanni Reynagoal
  • Damián BobadillaOG
Paraguay
  • Mauriciogoal

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-0
    13.5%
  • 1-1
    13.4%
  • 0-0
    11.1%
  • 0-1
    9.6%
  • 2-0
    9.0%
  • 2-1
    8.4%

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 58%Possession42%
  • 9Shots7
  • 2On target1
  • 1Corners1
  • 8Fouls11
  • 0Offsides1

Head to head

historical meetings
5 United States2 draw2 Paraguay

9 meetings · goals 12–7

  • 2025-11-15friendly2–1United States
  • 2018-03-27friendly1–0United States
  • 2016-06-11continental finals1–0United States
  • 2011-03-29friendly0–1Paraguay
  • 2007-07-02continental finals1–3Paraguay
  • 1Yellow cards4
  • 0Red cards0
  • Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.