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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

  • Forecast
  • Matches
  • Groups
  • Predict
  • Players
← All matchdays

Friday 26 June

Recap

4 matches · Group stage

← Thursday 25 JuneSaturday 27 June →

Briefing

Generated from the model's published runs

Headline

Upset: Turkey beat United States 3-2. The model had Turkey at just 30%.

Result recap

vs the pre-matchday run
  • Turkey3–2United StatesMissedhad United States at 44.7%
  • Paraguay0–0AustraliaMissedhad Australia at 38.8%
  • Norway1–4FranceCalled itFrance 51.7%
  • Senegal5–0IraqCalled itSenegal 44.6%

Biggest movers

champion odds, percentage points
Risers
  • Spain+88.8 pts
Fallers
  • Argentina−11.3 pts
  • France−7.2 pts
  • Brazil−7.0 pts

What the model is watching

next matchday: Saturday 27 June
  • Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabiaodds pending
  • Uruguay vs Spainodds pending
  • Egypt vs Iranodds pending
  • New Zealand vs Belgiumodds pending
  • Panama vs Englandodds pending
  • Croatia vs Ghanaodds pending
  • Colombia vs Portugalodds pending
  • DR Congo vs Uzbekistanodds pending

Scheduled matches

Times in your local timezone
Fri 26 Jun, 02:00 UTC· InglewoodFinalGroup D
Turkey

3–2

United States
TUR
3–2
USAFT
Fri 26 Jun, 02:00 UTC· Santa ClaraFinalGroup D
Paraguay

0–0

Australia
PAR
0–0
AUSFT
Fri 26 Jun, 19:00 UTC· FoxboroughFinalGroup I
Norway

1–4

France
NOR
1–4
FRAFT
Fri 26 Jun, 19:00 UTC· TorontoFinalGroup I
Senegal

5–0

Iraq
SEN
5–0
IRQFT