The model's award races and every tracked player, projected output against actuals.
Projections as of 19 Jul 2026, conditioned on 104 results
Called itthe model's pre-tournament pick won it.
Kylian MbappéFWFrance10Gexp 2.6(0.8–4.5)Model's pre-tournament pick: Lamine Yamal (the actual winner is below).
Michael OliseFWFrance7Aexp 1.5A shot-stopping PROXY, not the official Golden Glove - the model's pick, with no official award compared here.
Mike MaignanGKFrance0.9The model's pick - there is no official award to compare against, so it is a talking point, not a verdict.
Lionel MessiFWArgentina100The model's pick for each position. There is no official per-position award to compare against, so these are the model's call, not a verdict; the rating is a standing WITHIN each role, not a cross-role magnitude. How the rating works
The model's FROZEN pre-tournament baseline (as of 14 Jun 2026) beside its live re-projection, with actuals so far. XG expected goals, XA expected assists; the delta is now minus the frozen pre-tournament projection (a re-projection cannot move the frozen number).
Frozen baseline from the committed pre-tournament artifact; the now projection re-projects as actuals are recorded. An OUT badge marks an eliminated player, whose now is frozen at his as-played value. Actual shown as goals/assists.
| Player | AG | AA | XG | XA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AG actual goals · AA actual assists · XG expected goals · XA expected assists | ||||
| Kylian MbappéFW | 10 | 4 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| Lionel MessiFW | 8 | 4 | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| Jude BellinghamMF | 7 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| Erling HaalandFW | 7 | 0 | 2.6 | 0.4 |
| Ousmane DembéléFW | 6 | 2 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Harry KaneFW | 6 | 1 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| Mikel OyarzabalFW | 5 | 1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| Ismaïla Sarr | 4 | 1 | — | — |
| Julián Quiñones | 4 | 1 | — | — |
| Vinícius JúniorFW | 4 | 1 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
How these projections are built: methodology. Independent project, not affiliated with FIFA.