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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group G · Match 63

EgyptvsIran

1 – 1Full time

Sat 27 Jun, 03:00 UTC your time · Fri 26 Jun, 20:00 GMT-7 at the venue

Lumen Field, Seattle, United States

Final result

full time
Egypt1 – 1Iran

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Egypt
  • Mahmoud Sabergoal
Iran
  • Ramin Rezaeiangoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
28.7% Egypt31.1% draw40.2% Iran

Expected goals 0.91 – 1.13

Rating

What's driving this: Iran have a moderate rating edge (+78 Elo).

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Egypt28.7%draw31.1%Iran40.2%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Egypt 1798.2 · Iran 1876
    Iran +78 · moderate
  • FIFA ranking
    Egypt #29 · Iran #21
  • Recent form
    Egypt 3W-2D-1L · Iran 4W-1D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 0-1
    14.3%
  • 1-1
    13.8%
  • 0-0
    13.4%
  • 1-0
    11.4%
  • 0-2
    8.3%
  • 1-2
    7.6%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Egypt
DLWWDW
Iran
WLDWWW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 61%Possession39%
  • 7Shots7
  • 1On target1
  • 4Corners2
  • 5Fouls8
  • 0Offsides2
  • 1Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
0 Egypt1 draw0 Iran

1 meetings · goals 1–1

  • 2000-06-07friendly1–1draw