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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group G · Match 64

New ZealandvsBelgium

1 – 5Full time

Sat 27 Jun, 03:00 UTC your time · Fri 26 Jun, 20:00 GMT-7 at the venue

BC Place, Vancouver, Canada

Final result

full time
New Zealand1 – 5Belgium

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
New Zealand
  • Elijah Justgoal
Belgium
  • Leandro Trossard2 goals
  • Alexis Saelemaekersgoal
  • Kevin De Bruynegoal
  • Romelu Lukakugoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
22.3% New Zealand23.5% draw54.2% Belgium

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.83

Rating

What's driving this: Belgium hold a decisive rating edge: +224 Elo over New Zealand.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
New Zealand22.3%draw23.5%Belgium54.2%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    New Zealand 1721.8 · Belgium 1945.6
    Belgium +224 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    New Zealand #85 · Belgium #9
  • Recent form
    New Zealand 6W-0D-0L · Belgium 4W-2D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    11.1%
  • 1-2
    9.8%
  • 0-1
    9.5%
  • 0-2
    9.0%
  • 1-3
    6.0%
  • 2-1
    5.9%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
New Zealand
WWWWWW
Belgium
WDWDWW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 54%Possession46%
  • 6Shots19
  • 2On target6
  • 4Corners4
  • 6Fouls5
  • 0Offsides1
  • 2Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings

No previous meetings on record.