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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group D · Match 60

ParaguayvsAustralia

0 – 0Full time

Fri 26 Jun, 02:00 UTC your time · Thu 25 Jun, 19:00 GMT-7 at the venue

Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, United States

Final result

full time
Paraguay0 – 0Australia

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
29.5% Paraguay31.8% draw38.8% Australia

Expected goals 0.90 – 1.08

Even

What's driving this: The model rates these sides near-level, closer to a coin-flip.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Paraguay29.5%draw31.8%Australia38.8%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Paraguay 1842.8 · Australia 1858.4
    Australia +16 · negligible
  • FIFA ranking
    Paraguay #40 · Australia #27
  • Recent form
    Paraguay 3W-2D-1L · Australia 4W-2D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 0-1
    14.5%
  • 0-0
    14.3%
  • 1-1
    13.8%
  • 1-0
    12.1%
  • 0-2
    8.0%
  • 1-2
    7.2%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Paraguay
WDLWDW
Australia
WWWWDD

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 51%Possession49%
  • 6Shots6
  • 2On target2
  • 1Corners0
  • 4Fouls2
  • 0Offsides0
  • 1Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
0 Paraguay3 draw2 Australia

5 meetings · goals 2–4

  • 2010-10-09friendly0–1Australia
  • 2006-10-07friendly1–1draw
  • 2000-06-15friendly1–2Australia
  • 2000-06-12friendly0–0draw
  • 2000-06-09friendly0–0draw