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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group H · Match 65

Cape VerdevsSaudi Arabia

0 – 0Full time

Sat 27 Jun, 00:00 UTC your time · Fri 26 Jun, 19:00 GMT-5 at the venue

NRG Stadium, Houston, United States

Final result

full time
Cape Verde0 – 0Saudi Arabia

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
29.5% Cape Verde33.5% draw37.0% Saudi Arabia

Expected goals 0.83 – 0.97

Rating

What's driving this: Saudi Arabia have a slight rating edge (+47 Elo).

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Cape Verde29.5%draw33.5%Saudi Arabia37.0%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Cape Verde 1633.9 · Saudi Arabia 1681.2
    Saudi Arabia +47 · slight
  • FIFA ranking
    Cape Verde #69 · Saudi Arabia #61
  • Recent form
    Cape Verde 5W-1D-0L · Saudi Arabia 2W-2D-2L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 0-0
    16.9%
  • 0-1
    15.6%
  • 1-1
    13.7%
  • 1-0
    13.3%
  • 0-2
    7.8%
  • 1-2
    6.5%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Cape Verde
WDWWWW
Saudi Arabia
DWLDLW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 50%Possession50%
  • 11Shots4
  • 2On target2
  • 2Corners2
  • 3Fouls9
  • 2Offsides0
  • 0Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings

No previous meetings on record.