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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group D · Match 59

TurkeyvsUnited States

3 – 2Full time

Fri 26 Jun, 02:00 UTC your time · Thu 25 Jun, 19:00 GMT-7 at the venue

SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, United States

Final result

full time
Turkey3 – 2United States

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Turkey
  • Arda Gülergoal
  • Baris Alper Yilmazgoal
  • Kaan Ayhangoal
United States
  • Auston Trustygoal
  • Sebastian Berhaltergoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
30.2% Turkey25.0% draw44.7% United States

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.62

Host

What's driving this: United States play at home as World Cup hosts.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Turkey30.2%draw25.0%United States44.7%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Turkey 1886.3 · United States 1825.2
    Turkey +61 · slight
  • FIFA ranking
    Turkey #22 · United States #16
  • Host advantage
    United States playing on home soil
    +0.20 goal rate
  • Recent form
    Turkey 5W-1D-0L · United States 4W-1D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    11.7%
  • 1-2
    9.2%
  • 0-1
    8.4%
  • 2-1
    7.4%
  • 0-2
    7.1%
  • 1-0
    6.7%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Turkey
WWDWWW
United States
LWDWWW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 52%Possession48%
  • 4Shots10
  • 1On target3
  • 0Corners4
  • 6Fouls5
  • 1Offsides3
  • 0Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
2 Turkey1 draw2 United States

5 meetings · goals 7–7

  • 2025-06-07friendly2–1Turkey
  • 2014-06-01friendly1–2United States
  • 2010-05-29friendly1–2United States
  • 2003-06-19confederations cup2–1Turkey
  • 1991-09-04friendly1–1draw