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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group I · Match 61

NorwayvsFrance

1 – 4Full time

Fri 26 Jun, 19:00 UTC your time · Fri 26 Jun, 15:00 GMT-4 at the venue

Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, United States

Final result

full time
Norway1 – 4France

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Norway
  • Thelo Aasgaardgoal
France
  • Ousmane Dembélé3 goals
  • Désiré Douégoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
22.9% Norway25.4% draw51.7% France

Expected goals 1.01 – 1.64

Rating

What's driving this: France hold a decisive rating edge: +223 Elo over Norway.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Norway22.9%draw25.4%France51.7%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Norway 1872.2 · France 2095
    France +223 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Norway #31 · France #1
  • Recent form
    Norway 6W-0D-0L · France 5W-1D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    12.1%
  • 0-1
    11.3%
  • 1-2
    9.6%
  • 0-2
    9.5%
  • 0-0
    7.5%
  • 1-0
    6.8%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Norway
WWWWWW
France
WWDWWW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 50%Possession50%
  • 6Shots4
  • 2On target1
  • 3Corners2
  • 4Fouls5
  • 1Offsides1
  • 0Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
5 Norway4 draw7 France

16 meetings · goals 22–22

  • 2014-05-27friendly0–4France
  • 2010-08-11friendly2–1Norway
  • 1998-02-25friendly3–3draw
  • 1995-07-22friendly0–0draw
  • 1989-09-05wc qualifier1–1draw