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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group H · Match 66

UruguayvsSpain

0 – 1Full time

Sat 27 Jun, 00:00 UTC your time · Fri 26 Jun, 18:00 GMT-6 at the venue

Estadio Akron, Zapopan, Mexico

Final result

full time
Uruguay0 – 1Spain

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Uruguay

none

Spain
  • Álex Baenagoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
22.2% Uruguay33.3% draw44.5% Spain

Expected goals 0.67 – 1.08

Rating

What's driving this: Spain hold a decisive rating edge: +210 Elo over Uruguay.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Uruguay22.2%draw33.3%Spain44.5%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Uruguay 1946.5 · Spain 2156.1
    Spain +210 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Uruguay #17 · Spain #2
  • Altitude
    Spain concede ~1.6 km in Zapopan
    -0.26 goal rate
  • Recent form
    Uruguay 2W-2D-2L · Spain 5W-1D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 0-1
    18.4%
  • 0-0
    17.8%
  • 1-1
    13.0%
  • 1-0
    11.3%
  • 0-2
    10.1%
  • 1-2
    6.8%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Uruguay
DWWLDL
Spain
DWWWWW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 41%Possession59%
  • 2Shots2
  • 1On target0
  • 1Corners1
  • 11Fouls7
  • 3Offsides1
  • 3Yellow cards1
  • 1Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
0 Uruguay5 draw5 Spain

10 meetings · goals 8–16

  • 2013-06-16confederations cup1–2Spain
  • 2013-02-06friendly1–3Spain
  • 2005-08-17friendly0–2Spain
  • 1995-01-18friendly2–2draw
  • 1991-09-04friendly1–2Spain