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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group I · Match 62

SenegalvsIraq

5 – 0Full time

Fri 26 Jun, 19:00 UTC your time · Fri 26 Jun, 15:00 GMT-4 at the venue

BMO Field, Toronto, Canada

Final result

full time
Senegal5 – 0Iraq

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Senegal
  • Pape Gueye2 goals
  • Habib Diarragoal
  • Iliman Ndiayegoal
  • Ismaïla Sarrgoal
Iraq

none

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
44.6% Senegal31.6% draw23.8% Iraq

Expected goals 1.15 – 0.76

Rating

What's driving this: Senegal hold a decisive rating edge: +160 Elo over Iraq.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Senegal44.6%draw31.6%Iraq23.8%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Senegal 1902.5 · Iraq 1742.6
    Senegal +160 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Senegal #14 · Iraq #57
  • Recent form
    Senegal 4W-1D-1L · Iraq 4W-2D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-0
    16.6%
  • 0-0
    15.2%
  • 1-1
    13.3%
  • 0-1
    10.8%
  • 2-0
    9.8%
  • 2-1
    7.4%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Senegal
LWWWWD
Iraq
WWDDWW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 78%Possession22%
  • 18Shots2
  • 10On target1
  • 6Corners0
  • 5Fouls7
  • 0Offsides0
  • 1Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings

No previous meetings on record.