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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

  • Forecast
  • Matches
  • Groups
  • Predict
  • Players
← All matchdays

Wednesday 24 June

Recap

5 matches · Group stage

← Tuesday 23 JuneThursday 25 June →

Briefing

Generated from the model's published runs

Headline

Upset: Switzerland beat Canada 2-1. The model had Switzerland at just 34%.

Result recap

vs the pre-matchday run
  • Colombia1–0DR CongoCalled itColombia 56.0%
  • Switzerland2–1CanadaMissedhad Canada at 40.3%
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina3–1QatarMissedhad Qatar at 37.1%
  • Scotland0–3BrazilCalled itBrazil 59.2%
  • Morocco4–2HaitiCalled itMorocco 55.4%

Biggest movers

champion odds, percentage points
Risers
  • Spain+88.1 pts
Fallers
  • Argentina−11.4 pts
  • France−7.5 pts
  • Brazil−6.7 pts

What the model is watching

next matchday: Thursday 25 June
  • Czech Republic vs Mexicoodds pending
  • South Africa vs South Koreaodds pending
  • Curaçao vs Ivory Coastodds pending
  • Ecuador vs Germanyodds pending

Scheduled matches

Times in your local timezone
Wed 24 Jun, 02:00 UTC· ZapopanFinalGroup K
Colombia

1–0

DR Congo
COL
1–0
CODFT
Wed 24 Jun, 19:00 UTC· VancouverFinal
Japan vs Sweden
odds pending
  • Tunisia vs Netherlandsodds pending
  • Group B
    Switzerland

    2–1

    Canada
    SUI
    2–1
    CANFT
    Wed 24 Jun, 19:00 UTC· SeattleFinalGroup B
    Bosnia and Herzegovina

    3–1

    Qatar
    BIH
    3–1
    QATFT
    Wed 24 Jun, 22:00 UTC· Miami GardensFinalGroup C
    Scotland

    0–3

    Brazil
    SCO
    0–3
    BRAFT
    Wed 24 Jun, 22:00 UTC· AtlantaFinalGroup C
    Morocco

    4–2

    Haiti
    MAR
    4–2
    HAIFT