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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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← All matchdays

Monday 6 July

Recap

2 matches · Round of 16

← Sunday 5 JulyTuesday 7 July →

Briefing

Generated from the model's published runs

Headline

Upset: England beat Mexico 3-2. The model had England at just 28%.

Result recap

vs the pre-matchday run
  • Mexico2–3EnglandMissedhad Mexico at 40.9%
  • Portugal0–1SpainCalled itSpain 47.4%

Biggest movers

champion odds, percentage points
Risers
  • Spain+85.9 pts
Fallers
  • Argentina−15.4 pts
  • France−10.7 pts
  • Brazil−10.7 pts

What the model is watching

next matchday: Tuesday 7 July
  • United States vs Belgiumodds pending
  • Argentina vs Egyptodds pending
  • Switzerland vs Colombiaodds pending

Scheduled matches

Times in your local timezone
Mon 6 Jul, 00:00 UTC· Mexico CityFinalRound of 16
Mexico

2–3

England
MEX
2–3
ENGFT
Mon 6 Jul, 19:00 UTC· ArlingtonFinal
Round of 16
Portugal

0–1

Spain
POR
0–1
ESPFT