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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

  • Forecast
  • Matches
  • Groups
  • Predict
  • Players
← All matchdays

Sunday 5 July

Recap

1 match · Round of 16

← Saturday 4 JulyMonday 6 July →

Briefing

Generated from the model's published runs

Headline

Upset: Norway beat Brazil 2-1. The model had Norway at just 23%.

Result recap

vs the pre-matchday run
  • Brazil1–2NorwayMissedhad Brazil at 52.3%

Biggest movers

champion odds, percentage points
Risers
  • Spain+85.9 pts
Fallers
  • Argentina−15.4 pts
  • France−10.7 pts
  • Brazil−10.7 pts

What the model is watching

next matchday: Monday 6 July
  • Mexico vs Englandodds pending
  • Portugal vs Spainodds pending

Scheduled matches

Times in your local timezone
Sun 5 Jul, 20:00 UTC· East RutherfordFinalRound of 16
Brazil

1–2

Norway
BRA
1–2
NORFT