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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

  • Forecast
  • Matches
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← All matchdays

Saturday 4 July

Recap

3 matches · Round of 32 · Round of 16

← Friday 3 JulySunday 5 July →

Briefing

Generated from the model's published runs

Headline

Colombia beat Ghana 1-0, a win the model had at 60%.

Result recap

vs the pre-matchday run
  • Colombia1–0GhanaCalled itColombia 59.5%
  • Canada0–3MoroccoCalled itMorocco 41.3%
  • Paraguay0–1FranceCalled itFrance 52.3%

Biggest movers

champion odds, percentage points
Risers
  • Spain+85.8 pts
Fallers
  • Argentina−15.3 pts
  • France−11.1 pts
  • Brazil−10.5 pts

What the model is watching

next matchday: Sunday 5 July
  • Brazil vs Norwayodds pending

Scheduled matches

Times in your local timezone
Sat 4 Jul, 01:30 UTC· Kansas CityFinalRound of 32
Colombia

1–0

Ghana
COL
1–0
GHAFT
Sat 4 Jul, 17:00 UTC· HoustonFinal
Round of 16
Canada

0–3

Morocco
CAN
0–3
MARFT
Sat 4 Jul, 21:00 UTC· PhiladelphiaFinalRound of 16
Paraguay

0–1

France
PAR
0–1
FRAFT