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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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← All matchdays

Friday 3 July

Recap

3 matches · Round of 32

← Thursday 2 JulySaturday 4 July →

Briefing

Generated from the model's published runs

Headline

Australia and Egypt drew 1-1. The model gave the draw 32%.

Result recap

vs the pre-matchday run
  • Switzerland2–0AlgeriaCalled itSwitzerland 40.6%
  • Australia1–1EgyptMissedhad Australia at 38.5%
  • Argentina3–2Cape VerdeCalled itArgentina 68.8%

Biggest movers

champion odds, percentage points
Risers
  • Spain+85.9 pts
Fallers
  • Argentina−12.0 pts
  • France−11.4 pts
  • Brazil−11.1 pts

What the model is watching

next matchday: Saturday 4 July
  • Colombia vs Ghanaodds pending
  • Canada vs Moroccoodds pending
  • Paraguay vs Franceodds pending

Scheduled matches

Times in your local timezone
Fri 3 Jul, 03:00 UTC· VancouverFinalRound of 32
Switzerland

2–0

Algeria
SUI
2–0
ALGFT
Fri 3 Jul, 18:00 UTC· ArlingtonFinal
Round of 32
Australia

1–1

Egypt
AUS
1–1
EGYFT
Fri 3 Jul, 22:00 UTC· Miami GardensFinalRound of 32
Argentina

3–2

Cape Verde
ARG
3–2
CPVFT