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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Thursday 2 July

Recap

3 matches · Round of 32

← Wednesday 1 JulyFriday 3 July →

Briefing

Generated from the model's published runs

Headline

United States beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0, a win the model had at 60%.

Result recap

vs the pre-matchday run
  • United States2–0Bosnia and HerzegovinaCalled itUnited States 60.4%
  • Spain3–0AustriaCalled itSpain 60.3%
  • Portugal2–1CroatiaCalled itPortugal 42.7%

Biggest movers

champion odds, percentage points
Risers
  • Spain+89.0 pts
Fallers
  • Argentina−12.5 pts
  • France−11.8 pts
  • Brazil−11.3 pts

What the model is watching

next matchday: Friday 3 July
  • Switzerland vs Algeriaodds pending
  • Australia vs Egyptodds pending
  • Argentina vs Cape Verdeodds pending

Scheduled matches

Times in your local timezone
Thu 2 Jul, 00:00 UTC· Santa ClaraFinalRound of 32
United States

2–0

Bosnia and Herzegovina
USA
2–0
BIHFT
Thu 2 Jul, 19:00 UTC· InglewoodFinal
Round of 32
Spain

3–0

Austria
ESP
3–0
AUTFT
Thu 2 Jul, 23:00 UTC· TorontoFinalRound of 32
Portugal

2–1

Croatia
POR
2–1
CROFT