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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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← All matchdays

Wednesday 1 July

Recap

3 matches · Round of 32

← Tuesday 30 JuneThursday 2 July →

Briefing

Generated from the model's published runs

Headline

Mexico beat Ecuador 2-0, a win the model had at 42%.

Result recap

vs the pre-matchday run
  • Mexico2–0EcuadorCalled itMexico 42.0%
  • England2–1DR CongoCalled itEngland 55.2%
  • Belgium3–2SenegalCalled itBelgium 40.8%

Biggest movers

champion odds, percentage points
Risers
  • Spain+88.9 pts
Fallers
  • Argentina−12.5 pts
  • Brazil−12.1 pts
  • France−11.9 pts

What the model is watching

next matchday: Thursday 2 July
  • United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovinaodds pending
  • Spain vs Austriaodds pending
  • Portugal vs Croatiaodds pending

Scheduled matches

Times in your local timezone
Wed 1 Jul, 01:00 UTC· Mexico CityFinalRound of 32
Mexico

2–0

Ecuador
MEX
2–0
ECUFT
Wed 1 Jul, 16:00 UTC· AtlantaFinal
Round of 32
England

2–1

DR Congo
ENG
2–1
CODFT
Wed 1 Jul, 20:00 UTC· SeattleFinalRound of 32
Belgium

3–2

Senegal
BEL
3–2
SENFT