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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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← All matchdays

Tuesday 30 June

Recap

3 matches · Round of 32

← Monday 29 JuneWednesday 1 July →

Briefing

Generated from the model's published runs

Headline

Netherlands and Morocco drew 1-1. The model gave the draw 31%.

Result recap

vs the pre-matchday run
  • Netherlands1–1MoroccoMissedhad Netherlands at 36.3%
  • Ivory Coast1–2NorwayCalled itNorway 39.9%
  • France3–0SwedenCalled itFrance 59.4%

Biggest movers

champion odds, percentage points
Risers
  • Spain+88.5 pts
Fallers
  • Argentina−13.1 pts
  • France−7.6 pts
  • Brazil−7.1 pts

What the model is watching

next matchday: Wednesday 1 July
  • Mexico vs Ecuadorodds pending
  • England vs DR Congoodds pending
  • Belgium vs Senegalodds pending

Scheduled matches

Times in your local timezone
Tue 30 Jun, 01:00 UTC· GuadalupeFinalRound of 32
Netherlands

1–1

Morocco
NED
1–1
MARFT
Tue 30 Jun, 17:00 UTC· ArlingtonFinal
Round of 32
Ivory Coast

1–2

Norway
CIV
1–2
NORFT
Tue 30 Jun, 21:00 UTC· East RutherfordFinalRound of 32
France

3–0

Sweden
FRA
3–0
SWEFT