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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

  • Forecast
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← All matchdays

Monday 29 June

Recap

2 matches · Round of 32

← Sunday 28 JuneTuesday 30 June →

Briefing

Generated from the model's published runs

Headline

Germany and Paraguay drew 1-1. The model gave the draw 27%.

Result recap

vs the pre-matchday run
  • Brazil2–1JapanCalled itBrazil 44.3%
  • Germany1–1ParaguayMissedhad Germany at 49.0%

Biggest movers

champion odds, percentage points
Risers
  • Spain+88.5 pts
Fallers
  • Argentina−13.1 pts
  • France−7.6 pts
  • Brazil−7.1 pts

What the model is watching

next matchday: Tuesday 30 June
  • Netherlands vs Moroccoodds pending
  • Ivory Coast vs Norwayodds pending
  • France vs Swedenodds pending

Scheduled matches

Times in your local timezone
Mon 29 Jun, 17:00 UTC· HoustonFinalRound of 32
Brazil

2–1

Japan
BRA
2–1
JPNFT
Mon 29 Jun, 20:30 UTC· FoxboroughFinal
Round of 32
Germany

1–1

Paraguay
GER
1–1
PARFT