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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

  • Forecast
  • Matches
  • Groups
  • Predict
  • Players
← All matchdays

Saturday 20 June

Recap

4 matches · Group stage

← Friday 19 JuneSunday 21 June →

Briefing

Generated from the model's published runs

Headline

Upset: Paraguay beat Turkey 1-0. The model had Paraguay at just 32%.

Result recap

vs the pre-matchday run
  • Brazil3–0HaitiCalled itBrazil 68.6%
  • Turkey0–1ParaguayMissedhad Turkey at 37.8%
  • Netherlands5–1SwedenCalled itNetherlands 55.6%
  • Germany2–1Ivory CoastCalled itGermany 50.5%

Biggest movers

champion odds, percentage points
Risers
  • Spain+90.1 pts
Fallers
  • Argentina−10.5 pts
  • France−7.3 pts
  • Brazil−6.9 pts

What the model is watching

next matchday: Sunday 21 June
  • Ecuador vs Curaçaoodds pending
  • Tunisia vs Japanodds pending
  • Spain vs Saudi Arabiaodds pending
  • Belgium vs Iranodds pending

Scheduled matches

Times in your local timezone
Sat 20 Jun, 00:30 UTC· PhiladelphiaFinalGroup C
Brazil

3–0

Haiti
BRA
3–0
HAIFT
Sat 20 Jun, 03:00 UTC· Santa ClaraFinal
Uruguay vs Cape Verde
odds pending
Group D
Turkey

0–1

Paraguay
TUR
0–1
PARFT
Sat 20 Jun, 17:00 UTC· HoustonFinalGroup F
Netherlands

5–1

Sweden
NED
5–1
SWEFT
Sat 20 Jun, 20:00 UTC· TorontoFinalGroup E
Germany

2–1

Ivory Coast
GER
2–1
CIVFT