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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

  • Forecast
  • Matches
  • Groups
  • Predict
  • Players
← All matchdays

Sunday 21 June

Recap

5 matches · Group stage

← Saturday 20 JuneMonday 22 June →

Briefing

Generated from the model's published runs

Headline

Belgium and Iran drew 0-0. The model gave the draw 27%.

Result recap

vs the pre-matchday run
  • Ecuador0–0CuraçaoMissedhad Ecuador at 55.2%
  • Tunisia0–4JapanCalled itJapan 49.3%
  • Spain4–0Saudi ArabiaCalled itSpain 66.1%
  • Belgium0–0IranMissedhad Belgium at 42.3%
  • Uruguay2–2Cape VerdeMissedhad Uruguay at 53.9%

Biggest movers

champion odds, percentage points
Risers
  • Spain+89.9 pts
Fallers
  • Argentina−10.1 pts
  • Brazil−7.3 pts
  • France−7.1 pts

What the model is watching

next matchday: Monday 22 June
  • New Zealand vs Egyptodds pending
  • Argentina vs Austriaodds pending
  • France vs Iraqodds pending

Scheduled matches

Times in your local timezone
Sun 21 Jun, 00:00 UTC· Kansas CityFinalGroup E
Ecuador

0–0

Curaçao
ECU
0–0
CUWFT
Sun 21 Jun, 04:00 UTC· GuadalupeFinal
Group F
Tunisia

0–4

Japan
TUN
0–4
JPNFT
Sun 21 Jun, 16:00 UTC· AtlantaFinalGroup H
Spain

4–0

Saudi Arabia
ESP
4–0
KSAFT
Sun 21 Jun, 19:00 UTC· InglewoodFinalGroup G
Belgium

0–0

Iran
BEL
0–0
IRNFT
Sun 21 Jun, 22:00 UTC· Miami GardensFinalGroup H
Uruguay

2–2

Cape Verde
URU
2–2
CPVFT