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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

  • Forecast
  • Matches
  • Groups
  • Predict
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← All matchdays

Wednesday 17 June

Recap

5 matches · Group stage

← Tuesday 16 JuneThursday 18 June →

Briefing

Generated from the model's published runs

Headline

Portugal and DR Congo drew 1-1. The model gave the draw 26%.

Result recap

vs the pre-matchday run
  • Argentina3–0AlgeriaCalled itArgentina 57.2%
  • Austria3–1JordanCalled itAustria 44.0%
  • Portugal1–1DR CongoMissedhad Portugal at 56.0%
  • England4–2CroatiaCalled itEngland 43.9%
  • Ghana1–0PanamaMissedhad Panama at 45.4%

Biggest movers

champion odds, percentage points
Risers
  • Spain+89.9 pts
Fallers
  • Argentina−9.5 pts
  • France−7.3 pts
  • Brazil−7.0 pts

What the model is watching

next matchday: Thursday 18 June
  • Uzbekistan vs Colombiaodds pending
  • Czech Republic vs South Africaodds pending
  • Switzerland vs Bosnia and Herzegovinaodds pending
  • Canada vs Qatarodds pending

Scheduled matches

Times in your local timezone
Wed 17 Jun, 01:00 UTC· Kansas CityFinalGroup J
Argentina

3–0

Algeria
ARG
3–0
ALGFT
Wed 17 Jun, 04:00 UTC· Santa ClaraFinal
Group J
Austria

3–1

Jordan
AUT
3–1
JORFT
Wed 17 Jun, 17:00 UTC· HoustonFinalGroup K
Portugal

1–1

DR Congo
POR
1–1
CODFT
Wed 17 Jun, 20:00 UTC· ArlingtonFinalGroup L
England

4–2

Croatia
ENG
4–2
CROFT
Wed 17 Jun, 23:00 UTC· TorontoFinalGroup L
Ghana

1–0

Panama
GHA
1–0
PANFT