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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

  • Forecast
  • Matches
  • Groups
  • Predict
  • Players
← All matchdays

Sunday 14 June

Recap

5 matches · Group stage

← Saturday 13 JuneMonday 15 June →

Briefing

Generated from the model's published runs

Headline

Netherlands and Japan drew 2-2. The model gave the draw 26%.

Result recap

vs the pre-matchday run
  • Haiti0–1ScotlandCalled itScotland 42.1%
  • Australia2–0TurkeyCalled itAustralia 38.8%
  • Germany7–1CuraçaoCalled itGermany 68.6%
  • Netherlands2–2JapanMissedhad Netherlands at 39.0%
  • Ivory Coast1–0EcuadorMissedhad Ecuador at 38.8%

Biggest movers

champion odds, percentage points
Risers
  • Spain+88.8 pts
Fallers
  • Argentina−9.6 pts
  • Brazil−6.9 pts
  • France−6.5 pts

What the model is watching

next matchday: Monday 15 June
  • Sweden vs Tunisiaodds pending
  • Spain vs Cape Verdeodds pending
  • Belgium vs Egyptodds pending
  • Saudi Arabia vs Uruguayodds pending

Scheduled matches

Times in your local timezone
Sun 14 Jun, 01:00 UTC· FoxboroughFinalGroup C
Haiti

0–1

Scotland
HAI
0–1
SCOFT
Sun 14 Jun, 04:00 UTC· VancouverFinal
Group D
Australia

2–0

Turkey
AUS
2–0
TURFT
Sun 14 Jun, 17:00 UTC· HoustonFinalGroup E
Germany

7–1

Curaçao
GER
7–1
CUWFT
Sun 14 Jun, 20:00 UTC· ArlingtonFinalGroup F
Netherlands

2–2

Japan
NED
2–2
JPNFT
Sun 14 Jun, 23:00 UTC· PhiladelphiaFinalGroup E
Ivory Coast

1–0

Ecuador
CIV
1–0
ECUFT