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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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← All matchdays

Wednesday 15 July

Recap

1 match · Semi-finals

← Tuesday 14 JulyThursday 16 July →

Briefing

Generated from the model's published runs

Headline

Argentina beat England 2-1, a win the model had at 40%.

Result recap

vs the pre-matchday run
  • England1–2ArgentinaCalled itArgentina 40.4%

Biggest movers

champion odds, percentage points
Risers
  • Spain+46.9 pts
Fallers
  • Argentina−27.6 pts
  • England−19.2 pts

What the model is watching

next matchday: Saturday 18 July
  • France vs Englandodds pending

Scheduled matches

Times in your local timezone
Wed 15 Jul, 19:00 UTC· AtlantaFinalSemi-finals
England

1–2

Argentina
ENG
1–2
ARGFT