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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

  • Forecast
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← All matchdays

Tuesday 14 July

Recap

1 match · Semi-finals

← Monday 13 JulyWednesday 15 July →

Briefing

Generated from the model's published runs

Headline

Spain beat France 2-0, a win the model had at 42%.

Result recap

vs the pre-matchday run
  • France0–2SpainCalled itSpain 41.8%

Biggest movers

champion odds, percentage points
Risers
  • Spain+70.5 pts
Fallers
  • Argentina−28.8 pts
  • France−21.2 pts
  • England−20.4 pts

What the model is watching

next matchday: Wednesday 15 July
  • England vs Argentinaodds pending

Scheduled matches

Times in your local timezone
Tue 14 Jul, 19:00 UTC· ArlingtonFinalSemi-finals
France

0–2

Spain
FRA
0–2
ESPFT